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the following is a conversation with
elon musk his third time on this the lex
you don't do the headphone thing no okay
i mean how close do i get need to get
this thing the closer you are the sexier
you sound hey babe yeah can't get enough
i'm gonna clip that out anytime somebody
and you think i'm sexy come right out
mode come on you're russian you can be
everyone's serious all the time in
allow me to say that the spacex launch
of human beings to orbit on may 30th
was seen by many as the first step in a
new era of human space exploration
these human space flight missions were a
beacon of hope to me and to millions
over the past two years is our world has
been going through one of the most
difficult periods in recent human
we saw we see the rise of division fear
cynicism and the loss of common humanity
right when it is needed most so first
elon let me say thank you for giving the
world hope and reason to be excited
about the future oh it's kind of you to
i do want to do that humanity has uh
obviously a lot of issues and and uh you
know people at times do do bad things
despite all that um you know i love
make sure we do everything we can to
have a good future and an exciting
future and one where that maximizes the
let me ask about uh crew dragon demo two
so that that first flight with humans on
how did you feel leading up to that
launch were you scared are you excited
what's going through your mind so much
yeah no that was extremely stressful no
i was confident that at the time that we
at all to do that would improve the
um and we we racked our brains to think
of any possible way to improve the
probability of success we could not
think of anything more and and nor could
so then that that's just the best that
now i'm not a religious person
um but i nonetheless got on my knees and
when it was a success first when the
launch was a success and when they
returned back home or back to earth
it's for high stress situations i find
it's not so much elation as relief
as as we we got more comfortable and
improved out the systems because you
you know you got to make sure everything
i was it was definitely a lot more
enjoyable with the subsequent uh
the inspiration mission was was actually
very inspiring um the inspiration for
mission um i'd encourage people to watch
inspiration documentary on netflix it's
actually really good um and it really
isn't so i i was actually inspired by
that um and i i i so that one i felt i i
was kind of able to enjoy the the actual
mission and not just be super stressed
all the time so for people that somehow
don't know it's the all civilian first
all civilian out to space out to orbit
yeah it was the high i think the highest
orbit that uh in like under 30 or 40
years or something the only one that was
was the one shuttle sorry a hubble uh
um and then before that it would have
so it's cool it's good you know i think
do better and and reach higher ground
and and like i think it would be tragic
extremely tragic if um apollo was the
high water mark for humanity you know
and that then that's as far as we ever
it's concerning that here we are um
49 years after the last mission to the
that's worrying it's like is that
we've peaked as a civilization or what
like i think we got to get back to the
moon and build a base there you know a
science base i think we could learn a
lot about the nature of the universe if
we have a proper science base on the
um you know like we have a science based
in antarctica and you know many other
um so that that that's like i think the
next big thing we've got to have like a
serious like moon base um and then get
you know get get out there and
be a space bearing civilization
i'll ask you about some of those details
but since you're so busy with the hard
of everything that's involved
are you still able to marvel at the
magic of it all of space travel
of every time the rocket goes up
especially when it's a crude mission
or you're just so overwhelmed with the
all the challenges that you have to
and actually sort of to add to that
the reason i want to ask this question
of may 30th it's it's been some time so
you can look back and think about the
impact already it's already at the time
it was an engineering problem maybe now
it's becoming a historic moment like
how many moments would be remembered
that or something like that maybe
inspiration for one of those would be
remembered as the early steps of a new
yeah i mean during the launches itself
so i mean i think i think maybe some
people know but a lot of people don't
know it's like i'm actually the chief
you know i've signed off on pretty much
you know so if there's something that
vehicle it's it's fundamentally my fault
about all the things that like so so
when i see the rocket i see all the
things that could go wrong and the
things that could be better and the same
with the dragon spacecraft it's like
other people say oh this is a
spacecraft or a rocket and this looks
i've like a readout of like this is the
these are these are the risks these are
the pro the problems that's what i see
not what other people see when they see
the product you know so let me uh ask
you then to analyze starship in that
same way i know you have you'll talk
about in more detail about starship in
the near future perhaps yeah talk about
it now if you want um but just in that
same way like you said you see when you
when you see a rocket you see a sort of
a list of risks in that same way you
said that starship is a really hard
so there's many ways i can ask this but
if you magically could solve one problem
perfectly one engineering problem
perfectly which one would it be on sasha
on sorry on starship so is it maybe
uh the engine the weight of the
different components the complexity of
various things maybe the controls of the
the crazy thing has to do to land no
it's actually the by far the the biggest
not not the design of the engine but
we have the most advanced rocket engine
the because i say currently the the best
rocket engine ever is probably the rd
that that's the russian engine basically
and still i think an engine should only
count if it's gotten something to orbit
so our engine has not gotten anything to
um but it is it's the first engine
so you're talking about raptor engine
what makes it amazing what what are the
make it like what are you the most
excited about uh if the whole thing
in terms of efficiency all those kinds
operating at a very high chamber
so one of the key figures america
perhaps the key figure of merit is
what is the chamber pressure at which
the rocket engine can operate that's the
designed to operate at 300 bar possibly
maybe higher that's 300 atmospheres so
the record right now for operational
engine is the rd engine that i mentioned
the russian rd which is i believe around
and the the the difficulty of the
chamber pressure is increases on a
but that that chain of pressure is that
that is what allows you to get a very
a very high thrust to weight ratio
so specific impulse is like a measure of
the efficiency of a rocket engine or um
exhaust the effective exhaust velocity
of of the gas coming out of the engine
with a very high chamber pressure you
a compact engine that nonetheless has a
high expansion ratio which is the ratio
throat so you know engine's got like you
see a rocket just got like sort of like
about like a hourglass shape it's like a
chamber and then it next down and
there's a nozzle and the ratio of the
expansion ratio so why is it such a hard
so a lot of what does complexity mean
here's a lot of components involved
there's a lot of a lot of components and
several alloys that don't exist in order
it's a materials problem and um it is in
a staged combustion a full flow stage
combustion there there are many uh
propellant and and and uh hot gas
simultaneously to so many different
they all have a recursive effect on each
other so you change one thing here it
has a recursive effect here it changes
something over there and and it's
like there's a reason no one's made this
and the reason we're doing um a
is because it it has the highest uh the
theoretical possible uh efficiency
in in in order to make a fully reusable
which that's the really the holy grail
everything's got to be the best uh it's
got to be the best engine the best
airframe the best heat shield um
you know very clever control mechanisms
um you've got to shed mass in in any
possible way that you can um for example
instead of putting landing legs on the
booster and chip we are going to catch
them with a tower to save the weight of
the largest flying object ever made
on a giant tower with with chopstick
it's like karate kid with the fly but
uh and anyway so this is bananas this is
banana stuff so you mentioned that you
doubt well not you doubt but there
there's days or moments when you doubt
it's so difficult the possible part is
we'll i think we will get starship to
um there's a question of timing how long
how long will it take us to actually
achieve a full and rapid reusability
because it will take probably many
launches before we are able to have full
but i can't say that that the physics
pencils out like the like we're not uh
like at this point i'd say we're
i'm very confident success is in the set
for a while there i was not convinced
that success was in the set of possible
which is very important actually
saying there's a chance i'm saying
we're very very talented team they're
working night and day to make it happen
and like like i said the the the
critical thing to achieve for the
revolution in space flight and for
civilization is to have a fully and
rapidly reusable rocket oval rocket
there's not even been any orbital rocket
that's been fully reusable ever and this
the the holy grail of rocketry
many smart people very smart people
have tried to do this before and have
um because it's such a hard problem
when the engineering problem is so
difficult there's a lot of experts
many of whom you admire who have failed
a lot of experts maybe journalists all
the kind of you know the public in
general have a lot of doubt about
and you yourself know that even if it's
of success it's still unlikely or very
difficult like where do you go to both
um intellectually as an engineer as a
like for source of strength needed to
sort of persevere through this
and to keep going with the project take
a source of strength hmm i i just really
i mean for me it's simply this this is
something that is important to get done
and we we should just keep doing it um
a source of strength so quitting is not
that's not it's not my nature okay and i
care about optimism or pessimism
[\xa0__\xa0] that we're gonna get it done gonna
can you uh then zoom back in to specific
problems with starship or any
engineering problems you work on
can you try to introspect your
particular biological neural network
your thinking process and describe how
through problems the different
engineering and design problems is there
like a systematic process you've spoken
about first principles thinking but is
there kind of a process to it well um
you know like saying like like physics
is law and everything else is a
um like i've met a lot of people who can
break the law but i haven't met anyone
so uh so first for you know any kind of
technology problem you have to sort of
first principles analysis i think is
something that can be applied to
really any walk of life uh any anything
really it's just it's it's really just
you know let's let's well something down
principles the things that we are most
confident are true at a foundational
and that sets you at your sets your
axiomatic base and then you reason up
from there and then you cross-check your
conclusion against the the axiomatic
um you know some basics in physics would
be like are you violating conservation
of energy or momentum or something like
you know so that's just to establish is
and then another good physics tool is
thinking about things in the limit if
you if you take a particular thing and
scale it to a very large number or to a
very small number how does how do things
um well it's like tempo like in number
of things you manufacture something like
yeah like let's say say the example of
like manufacturing which i think is just
uh likes it it's it's much harder to
an advanced technology product and bring
it into volume manufacturing than it is
to design it in the first place my
so let's say you're trying to figure out
because of something fundamentally
foolish that we're doing or is it
because our volume is too low and so
then you say okay well what if our
volume was a million units a year is it
still expensive that's what i'm
radically thinking about things to the
limit if it's still expensive at a
million units a year then volume is not
the reason why your thing is expensive
there's something fundamental about
and then you then can focus on the
reducing complexity or something like
that and change the design to change
changes apart to be something that is uh
but like that's a common thing in
rocketry because the the unit volume is
relatively low and so a common excuse
would be well it's expensive because our
unit volume is low um and if we were in
like automotive or something like that
or consumer electronics then our costs
would be lower and like i'm like okay so
let's say we skip now you're making a
million units a year is it still
expensive if the answer is yes
economies of scale are not the issue
into manufacturing do you throw like
supply chain you talk about resources
and materials and stuff like that do you
throw that into the calculation of
trying to reason from first principles
like how we're going to make the supply
yeah yeah and then the cost of materials
things like that or is that too much
exactly so um like another like a good
example of thinking about things uh in
product any machine or whatever um
like take a rocket or whatever
say uh if you've got if you look at the
um so you're gonna have like uh
aluminum steel titanium inconel
especially specialty alloys um
copper and and you say what are the
what what's the weight of the
constituent elements of each of these
elements and what is their raw material
low the cost of the vehicle can be
unless you change the materials
and then when you do that i call it like
maybe the magic wand number or something
like that so that would be like if you
you know a like just a pile of these raw
materials here and you could wave magic
wand and rearrange the atoms into the
lowest possible cost that you could make
this thing for unless you change the
so then and that is always a you're
almost always a very low number
so then the what's actually causing
these to be expensive is how you put the
atoms into the desired shape
yeah actually if you don't mind me
taking a tiny tangent i had uh i often
talked to jim keller who was somebody
that worked with you oh yeah that's a
um i suppose he carries the flame of the
same kind of thinking that you're you're
um and i guess i see that same thing at
and spacex folks who work there they
kind of learn this way of thinking and
it kind of becomes obvious almost
but anyway i had um argument not
how cheap it might be to manufacture
teslabot we just we had an argument what
is how can you reduce the cost of scale
producing a robot because i've gotten a
chance to interact quite a bit um
obviously in in the academic circles
with humanoid robots and then boston
dynamics and stuff like that and they're
and then uh jim kind of schooled me on
saying like okay like this kind of first
principle is thinking of how can we get
the cost of manufacturing down
um i suppose you do that you have done
that kind of thinking for teslabot and
all kinds of complex systems that are
traditionally seen as complex and you
say okay how can we simplify everything
i mean i think if you are really good at
make at high volume you can basically
that asymptotically approaches the real
raw material value of the constituents
plus any intellectual property that you
but it's hard it's not like that's a
very hard thing to do but but it is
anything in volume can be made
that asymptotically approaches raw
plus intellectual property license
so what will often happen in trying to
design a product is people will start
with the tools and and parts and methods
and try to create a product using their
the other way to think about it is
actually imagine the try to imagine the
platonic ideal of the perfect product or
technology whatever it might be
and so what is this what is the perfect
that would be the the best possible
and now let us try to figure out how to
it's almost like a rick and morty absurd
until you start to really think about it
think about it in this way because
everything else is kind of uh
you you might fall victim to the
momentum of the way things are done in
the past unless you think in this way
well just as a function of inertia
want to use the same tools and methods
they just that's what they'll do by
default yeah and then that will lead to
an outcome of things that can be made
with those tools and methods but it is
platonic idea of the perfect product
then so that's why it's good to think of
things in both directions they're like
what can we build with the tools that we
have but then but but also what is the
what is the perfect the theoretical
perfect product look like and that that
theoretical perfect part is going to be
a moving target because as you learn
the definition of or or for that perfect
product will change because you don't
actually know what the perfect product
is but you can successfully approximate
so the thing about it like that and then
saying okay now what tools methods
materials whatever do we need to
create in order to get the atoms in that
rarely think about it that way
i should mention that the brilliant
in case you hear a voice of uh wisdom
from from outside from up above
okay so let me ask you about mars you
mentioned it would be great for science
um a base on the moon to do some
the truly big leap again in this
category of seemingly impossible is to
when do you think spacex will land a
what are the determining factors would
you say from an engineering perspective
or is that that not the bottlenecks
uh you know it's fundamentally um
you know engineering the the vehicle um
complex and advanced rocket that's ever
i don't know order of magnitude or
something like that it's a lot
and the fundamental optimization of
starship is minimizing cost per ton to
orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the
um this may seem like a mercantile
objective but it is actually the thing
cost per tonne to the surface of mars
where we can afford to establish a
and then above that we cannot afford to
do it um so right right now you couldn't
fly to mars for a trillion dollars
doesn't no amount of money could get
uh you know to get that like something
that is actually possible at all um
but but then but that's that's
you know with mars flags and footprints
and then not come back for a half
century like we did with the moon
a very important great filter i think we
need to be a multi-planet species
this may sound somewhat esoteric to
like eventually given enough time
the earth is likely to experience
some calamity um that could be
something that humans do to themselves
or an external event like happen to the
um but a bit of you know eventually
and if nothing if none of that happens
and somehow magically we keep going
then the sun will the sun is gradually
um and will engulf the earth um and
probably earth gets too hot for
about 500 million years it's a long time
10 longer than earth has been around
and so if you think about like the
because the current situation is really
remarkable um and kind of hard to
it's been around four and a half billion
years and this is the first time if one
half billion years that has been
possible to extend life beyond earth
and that window opportunity may be open
for a long time and i hope it is but it
also may be open for a short time and we
act quickly while the window is open
yeah the existence of nuclear weapons
could die with a bang or a whimper
if it dies a demographic collapse then
but if it's world war three it's more of
um i mean it's important to think of
you know think of things as like
probabilities not certainties um there's
something bad will happen on earth like
i think most likely the future will be
argument's sake um a one percent chance
of a civilization ending event like that
was stephen hawking's estimate
i think he's he might be right about
think of this like being a multi-planet
species just like taking out insurance
for life itself like life insurance for
so it's turned into an infomercial real
quick life insurance for life yes
um and you know we we can bring the the
the creatures from uh you know plants
and animals from earth to mars and
breathe life into the planet um
and and have a second planet with with
that would be great um they can't bring
themselves there you know so if we don't
for sure all die when the sun expands
anyway and then that'll be it what do
you think is the most difficult aspect
of building a civilization on mars
terraforming mars like from engineering
perspective from a financial perspective
get a large number of folks there
who will never return back to earth
uh no they could certainly return some
will return back to earth they will
choose to stay there for the rest of
we need the spaceships back like the
ones that go to mars read them back so
you can hop on if you want you know it's
like but we can't just not have the
spaceships come back those things are
expensive we need them i'd like to come
back and do another trip i mean do you
think about the terraforming aspect like
actually building are you so focused
right now on the spaceships part that's
we absolutely if you can't get there
at some extraordinarily high cost i mean
one ton to the surface of mars is on the
because you don't just need the rocket
and the launch and everything you need
like heat shield you need you know
guidance system you need deep space
communications you need some kind of
so like rough approximation would be
a billion dollars per ton to the surface
way too expensive to create a
at least a factor of a thousand
yes ideally less than much less than a
say if i say like what well how much can
society affords to spend or want to just
want to spend on a self-sustaining
city on mars the self-sustaining part is
important like it's just the key
it can survive even if the spaceships
from earth stop coming for any reason
doesn't matter what the reason is but if
they stop coming for any reason will it
die out will it not and if there's even
one critical ingredient missing then
it still doesn't count it's like
you know if you're on a long sea voyage
and you've got everything except vitamin
and it's only a matter of time you know
so so we're going to get mars city to
the point where it's self-sustaining
um i'm not sure this will really happen
in my lifetime but i i hope to see it at
and and then you could say okay what is
the minimum tonnage necessary to
have a self-sustaining city um
and there's a lot of uncertainty about
this you could say like i don't know
it's probably at least a million tons
because you have to set up a lot of
like i said you can't be missing any
in order to be self-sustaining you can't
be missed like you need you know
iron ore refineries like you need lots
um and mars is not super hospitable it's
it's the least inhospitable planet but
it's definitely a fixer-upper of a
yeah the earth is pretty earth is like
yeah and also we should clarify in the
solar system yes in the solar system
like vacation spots there might be some
it's hard to get there yeah way way way
to say at least let me push back on that
not really a pushback but a quick
curveball of a question so you did
mention physics as the the first
general relativity allows for wormholes
uh they technically can exist do you
think um those can ever be leveraged by
humans to travel faster than the speed
are you saying the whole thing is
that we currently do not know of any
means of going faster than the speed of
you can only move at the speed of light
if you can make space itself move
um space is is capable of moving faster
uh like the universe in the big bang the
universe the universe expanded at much
much more than the speed of light
if this is possible the the amount of
energy required towards space is so
so all the work you've done with
propulsion how much innovation is
possible with rocket propulsion is this
i mean you've seen it all and you're
constantly innovating in every aspect
how much is possible like how much can
you get 10x somehow is there something
that you can get significant improvement
in terms of efficiency of engines and
really the holy grail is a fully and
rapidly reusable orbital system um
falcon 9 is the only reusable rocket out
the the booster comes back and lands and
you've seen the videos and we get the
nose cone or faring back but we do not
that means that we have a minimum cost
you can think of like a two-stage rocket
of sort of like two airplanes like a big
airplane and a smaller airplane
um and we get big airplane back but not
the smaller airplane and so it still
costs a lot you know so that upper stage
you know at least 10 million dollars
degree of the the booster is not as
reused it's not as rapidly and
completely reusable as we'd like in
minimum marginal cost not counting
overhead for per flight is on the order
uh that's that's extremely good for
it's by far better than any rocket ever
with full and rapid reusability we can
reduce the cost per ton to orbit by
like imagine if you had an aircraft or
buy a new car every time you went for a
drive it would be very expensive
um but you in fact you just refuel the
and that's uh makes your trip
i don't know a thousand times cheaper
it's the same for rockets uh if you
very difficult to make this complex
and so if you cannot reuse it and if you
have to throw even any part of any
significant part of it away that
you know starship in theory could do
a cost per launch of like a million
maybe two million dollars or something
and put over 100 tons in orbit
so that's incredible so you're saying
like it's uh by far the biggest bang for
the buck is to make it fully reusable
brilliant breakthrough in theoretical
no no there's no there's no brilliant
it just me you're gonna make the rocket
reusable this is an extremely difficult
got it uh but no no new physics is
just brilliant engineering let me ask a
slightly philosophical fun question
gotta ask i know you're focused on
getting to mars but once we're there on
mars what do you what form of government
political system do you think would work
best for an early civilization of humans
the the interesting reason to talk about
this stuff it also make helps people
dream about the future i know you're
the short-term engineering dream but
it's like i don't know there's something
about imagining an actual civilization
it really gives people hope well it
would be a new frontier and an
opportunity to rethink the whole nature
of government just as was done in the
direct democracy like people vote
directly on things as opposed to
uh representative democracy i think is
uh subject to a special interest and
you know a coercion of the politicians
um direct democracy people vote on laws
the population votes on laws themselves
and then the laws must be short enough
that people can understand them
well-informed populist like really being
transparent about all the information
about what they're voting for absolute
transparency yeah and not make it as
annoying as those cookies we have to
you know there's like always like a
slight amount of trepidation when you
click accept cookies like i feel as
though there's like perhaps like a like
a very tiny chance that'll open a portal
to hell or something like that that's
exactly how i feel why why do they why
do they keep wanting to accept that what
like somebody got upset with accepting
cookies or something somewhere
so annoying to keep accepting all these
a great exception yes you can have my
damn cookie i don't care whatever
you heard it from me on first he accepts
implementation of a good idea done
really horribly yeah it's somebody was
like there's some good intentions of
like privacy or whatever but now
everyone's just has to take accept
cookies and it's not you know you have
billions of people who have to keep
clicking except cookie it's super
then we just accept the damn cookie it's
i think a fundamental problem that we're
because we've not really had a
uh like a world war or something like
that in a while and obviously we would
like to not have world wars um
the there's not been a cleansing
function for rules and regulations um
so wars did have uh you know some sort
of lining in that there would be a a
reset on rules and regulations uh after
a war um so world wars one and two there
for if the society society does not have
and there's no cleansing function or
garbage collection for rules and
regulations then rules and regulations
will accumulate every year because
they're immortal there's no actual
humans die but the laws don't so
we need a garbage collection function
for rules and regulations they should
be immortal um because some of the rules
and regulations that are put in place
will be counterproductive uh done with
good intentions but counterproductive
sometimes not done with good intentions
um if you just if rules and regulations
and you get more and more of them then
eventually you won't be able to do
anything you're just like gulliver with
you know tied down by thousands of
like basically all economies that uh
have been around for for a while
uh and and regulators and legislators
create new rules and regulations every
year but they don't put effort into
removing them and i think that's very
important that we put effort into
removing rules and regulations
but it gets tough because you get
special interests that then are
dependent on like they they have a
vested interest in that whatever rule
and regulation and that they then they
yeah so it i mean i guess the problem
with the constitution is it's it's kind
versus java because it doesn't have any
garbage collection built in i think
there should be i when you first said
the the the metaphor of garbage
collection from a coding standpoint from
the colony standpoint yeah yeah i it
would be interesting interesting if the
laws themselves kind of had a built-in
thing where they kind of die after a
while unless somebody explicitly
publicly defends them yeah so that
that's sort of it's not like somebody
has to kill them they kind of die
themselves they disappear yeah
not to defend java or anything but you
know the c plus plus you know you could
also have a great garbage collection in
yeah so yeah something's good something
or or just the the civilization's
arteries arteries just harden over time
and and you can just get less and less
done because there's just a rule against
so yeah i think like i don't know for
mars order i'd say or even for you
obviously for earth as well like i think
there should be an active process for
rules and regulations and questioning
like if we've got a function for
creating rules and regulations because
rules and regulations can also think of
as like they're like software or lines
uh civilization that's the rules and
so it's like we shouldn't have rules and
accumulation but no code removal
to become basically archaic bloatware
um and and it's just it makes it hard
i don't know maybe mars you'd have like
you know any given law must have a
sunset you know and and and uh and
restoring to keep it up there you know
um and i actually also say like
recommendations or thoughts and
ultimately we'll be up to the people on
it should be easier to remove a law than
to add one because of the just to
for argument's sake you need like say 60
percent vote to have a law take effect
but only a 40 vote to remove it
so let me be the guy you posted meme on
twitter recently where there's
there's like a row of urinals a guy just
listen i mean that's happened to me
so many times i think maybe even
do you think technologically speaking
there's any room for ideas of smart
contracts or so on because you mentioned
um that's an interesting implement use
of things like smart contracts to
implement the laws by which governments
like something built on ethereum or
a dog coin that enables smart contracts
somehow i never i don't quite understand
this whole smart contract thing um you
so it's two dumb times to have small
i mean my general approach to any kind
of like deal or whatever is just make
sure there's clarity of understanding
that's the most important thing
um and and just keep any kind of deal
very very short and simple plain
and just make sure everyone understands
this is the deal does everyone is it
and and what are the consequences if
various things don't happen um
you know business deals or whatever are
way too long and complex and overly
you mentioned that uh doge is the
yeah and you said that you were
is this something you're still
do you think there's some chance we've
talked about political systems on mars
official currency of mars that's coming
i think mars itself will need to have a
different currency because you can't
synchronize due to speed of light
or not easily um so it must be
completely standalone from earth
mars is at closest approach it's four
light minutes away roughly and then at
furthest approach uh it's roughly 20
so you can't really have something
synchronizing you know if you could if
if you've got a 20 minute speed light
issue if it's got a one minute
blockchain uh it's not going to
so mars really would i don't know if
mars would have a cryptocurrency as a
thing but probably seems likely
but it would be some kind of localized
the future of mars should be up to the
i mean i think the cryptocurrency thing
the database that is called money
you know i think i have a pretty deep
understanding of the of what money
actually is on a practical day-to-day
right now the money system actually for
is really a bunch of uh heterogeneous uh
mainframes running uh old cobalt
okay you mean literally that's literally
that is literally what's happening in
okay in patch mode yeah uh pretty the
maintain that code okay that's a
that's a pain that's pain not even for
trans cobalt yep it's cobalt it's like
banks are still buying mainframes in
2021 and running ancient global code
you know the the federal reserve is like
probably even older than the what the
banks have and they have an old kobold
and so now and and so the the government
effectively has editing privileges on
um and they use those editing privileges
and this increases the error in the
database that is money so i think money
should really be viewed through the lens
you're kind of like uh like an internet
connection like what's the bandwidth uh
total bit rate uh what is the latency
errors in errors in the network uh
using money like that basically
um i think that's probably why i really
and and then say what what system
from an information theory standpoint
allows an economy to function the best
crypto is an attempt to reduce the
uh in money that is contributed by
as basically a pernicious pernicious
so both policy in terms of with
inflation and actual like technological
cobalt like cryptocurrency takes us into
the 21st century in terms of the actual
systems that allow you to do the
transaction to store wealth all those
like i said just think of money as
information people um often will think
of money as having power in and of
itself um it does not money is uh is
information and it it does not have
the like the you know again applying the
tools of thinking about things in the
is helpful if you are stranded on a
you have a trillion dollars it's useless
because there's no there's no resource
money is a database for resource
but there's no resources to allocate
if you're surrounded on desert island
no food you'd uh all the bitcoin in the
not stop you from starving yeah
so like just think of money as as a
database for resource allocation um
um and then what what what system
what what what would be most effective
there's a there is a fundamental issue
with um say bitcoin in its current form
uh in that it's the transaction volume
latency this is the latency for for a
properly confirmed transaction is to is
too long much longer than you'd like
so it's not it's actually not great from
a transaction volume standpoint or a
uh so it is perhaps useful as
as to search to solve an aspect of the
which is the sort of store of wealth or
relative obligations i suppose
currency as a day-to-day currency but
people have proposed different
yeah lightning network and the layer two
technologies on top of that i mean it's
it's all it seems to be all kind of a
trade-off but the point is it's kind of
brilliant to say that just think about
information think about what kind of
database what kind of infrastructure
enables yeah like you're operating an
uh value ratios between products and
services so you've got this massive
number of products and services and you
you can't just bar barter it's like that
so you need something that gives you the
ratio of exchange between goods and
and and then something that allows you
uh shift obligations across time like
debt debt and equity shift obligations
across time then what does what does the
part reason why i think there's some
um merit to dogecoin even though it was
it it actually does have a much higher
uh transaction volume capability than
and the you know the cut like the costs
of doing a transaction the the dogecoin
fee is is very low like right now if you
want to do a bitcoin transaction the
price of doing that transaction is very
high so you could not use it effectively
um and nor could it even scale to a high
and when bitcoin was you know started i
guess when around 2008 or something like
the internet connections were much worse
than they are today like order of
i mean there's the way way worse you
know in 2008 so so like having us you
made sense in 2008 but did you know 2021
or fast forward 10 years it's like it's
comically low you know it's uh
a linear increase in the amount of
currency that uh is generated um
so because some amount of the currency
if a currency is too deflationary or
if if a currency is expected to increase
in value over time there's reluctance to
because they're like oh i if i
i'll just hold it and not spend it
because it's scarcity is increasing with
time so if i spend it now then i will
regret spending it so i will just you
some dilution of the currency occurring
over time that's that's more of an
incentive to use that as a currency so
um those coins somewhat randomly has
sort of coins or hash strings that
are generated every year so there's
there's some inflation but it's not a
percentage base it's a it's so the
it's a fixed number so the percentage of
inflation will necessarily decline over
so it just i'm not saying that it's like
the ideal system for a currency but i
anything else i've seen just by accident
um so i like how you said um around 2008
you know some people suggested you might
be satoshi nakamoto you previously said
would you tell us if you were yes okay
uh do you think it's a feature of bug
that he's anonymous or she or they
it's an interesting kind of quirk of
human history that there is a particular
technology that is a completely
well i mean you can you can look at the
um before the launch of bitcoin
i like i don't know exactly obviously i
don't know who created bitcoin for
the evolution of ideas is is pretty
clear before that and like it seems as
though like nick zabo uh is probably
more than anyone else uh responsible for
the evolution of those ideas so
i'm not sure that's that's neither here
nor there uh but he he seems to be the
one more responsible for the ideas
behind bitcoin than anyone else
so it's not perhaps like singular
figures aren't even as important as the
the figures involved in the evolution of
ideas that led to a thing so yeah yeah
it's you know and most perhaps it's sad
to think about history but maybe most
names will be forgotten anyway what is
the name anyway it's a name a name
what does it even mean really i think
shakespeare had a thing about roses and
stuff whatever he said arose by any
i gotta underquote shakespeare i feel i
feel like i accomplished something today
shall i compare it to a summer's day
tesla autopilot has been through an
incredible journey over the past six
years um or perhaps even longer in the
minds of in your mind in the minds of
uh i think that's where we first like
connected really with the autopilot
the whole journey was incredible to me
because i knew well part of as i was at
mit and i i knew the difficulty of
computer vision yeah and i knew the
whole i had a lot of colleagues and
friends about the darpa challenge i knew
how difficult it is and so there was a
natural skepticism when i first drove a
tesla with uh the initial system based
on mobile eye yeah i thought there's no
the first one i got in i thought there's
no way this car could maintain
um like stay in the lane and create a
comfortable experience so my intuition
initially was that the lane keeping
problem is way too difficult to solve
oh thank you yeah that's relatively easy
well yeah but like uh but not this but
solve in the way that we just we talked
versus a thing that actually creates a
pleasant experience over hundreds of
thousands of miles or millions
a lot of code around the mobile eye
thing it doesn't just work by itself yes
i mean there's part that's part of the
story of how you approach things
sometimes sometimes you do things from
scratch sometimes at first you kind of
see what's out there and then you decide
one of the boldest decisions i've seen
is both on the hardware and the software
to decide to eventually go from scratch
i thought again i was skeptical whether
that's going to be able to work out
because it's such a such a difficult
and so it was an incredible journey what
everything the hardware the compute the
maybe care and love about most is the
the stuff that andre karpathy is leading
with the data set selection the whole
data engine process the neural network
architectures the the way that's in the
that network is tested validated all the
uh you know versus the image net model
of computer vision like what's in
academia is like real world artificial
andrei's awesome and obviously plays an
a lot of really talented people driving
um and uh ashok is actually the head of
andre is the director of ai ai stuff
yeah yeah so yeah there's i'm aware that
there's an incredible team of just a lot
going on yeah just uh you know as people
people will give off will give me too
much credit and they'll give andre too
and people should realize how much is
going on under the yeah it's just a lot
the tesla autopilot ai team is extremely
some of the smartest people in the world
what are some insights you've gained
five six years of autopilot about the
problem of autonomous driving so
having some sort of first principles
kinds of intuitions but nobody knows
difficult the problem yeah like
i thought the self-driving problem would
be hard but it's it was harder than i
thought it's not like i thought it'd be
easy i thought it'd be very hard but it
actually way harder than than even that
i mean what it comes down to at the end
of the day is to solve self-driving
um what you what humans do to drive
optical sensors eyes and biological
um and so in order to that that's how
the entire road system is designed to
it biologically um and now that we need
to it so for actually for full-size
driving to work we have to recreate that
um that that means cameras with uh
and and then you it will obviously solve
for full self-driving that's the only
way i don't think there's any other way
but the question is what aspects of
human nature do you have to encode into
the machine right so you have to solve
the perception problem like detect
what is the perception problem for
driving like all the kinds of things you
have to be able to see like what what do
we even look at when we drive there's uh
heard andre talked about at mit about
like car doors i think it was the
world's greatest talk of all time about
car doors yeah um the the you know the
fine details of car doors like what what
is even an open car door man
so like the the ontology of that that's
the perception problem we humans solve
that perception problem and tesla has to
solve that problem and then there's the
control and the planning coupled with
the perception you have to figure out
what's involved in driving like
especially in all the different edge
maybe you can comment on this
how much game theoretic kind of stuff
you know at a four-way stop sign
you know our as humans when we drive our
actions affect the world like sure it
changes how others behave most
you're usually just responding
um to the scene as opposed to like
really um asserting yourself in the
i think these actually i think i think
these could these sort of control
control logic conundrums are not are not
what do you think is the hard part in
um beautiful complex problem so it's a
a lot of smart lines of code um
create an accurate vector space
you're coming from image space which is
um photons you're going to camera
so you have this massive bitstream
image space and then you have to
knocked off an electron in a camera
uh and and turn that put stream into
i by by vector space i mean like
traffic lights and that kind of thing
once you uh have an accurate vector
space um the control problem is similar
to that of a video game like a grand
theft auto cyberpunk um if you have
accurate best vector space it's the
it's i wouldn't say it's it's trouble
like it's it's it's it's a it's not like
insurmountable thing it's a it's but
is very difficult yeah i think we humans
don't give enough respect to how
incredible the human perception system
your brain is doing an incredible amount
and and giving you an image that is a
very cleaned up image like when we look
around here we see like you see color in
the corners of your eyes but actually
cones like the cone receptors in the
peripheral vision your your eyes are
painting color in the peripheral vision
you don't realize it but their eyes are
your eyes also have like this blood
vessels and all sorts of gnarly things
and there's a blind spot but do you see
your brain is painting in the missing
the blind spot you're gonna do these
see these things online where you look
look here and look at this point and and
then look at this point and it's
if it's in your blind spot it your brain
the peripheral vision is so cool yes you
realize all the illusions for vision
sciences so makes you realize just how
incredible the brain is the brain is
doing crazy amount of post-processing on
the vision signals from your eyes
and then and then even once you get all
your brain is constantly trying to fig
to forget as much as possible so human
perhaps the weakest thing about the
so expensive to a brain and so limited
your brain is trying to forget as much
uh the smallest smallest amounts of
information possible so your brain is
trying to not just get to a vector space
but get to a vector space that is the
smallest possible vector space of only
you can sort of look inside your brain
i can like when you drive down the road
think about what your brain is actually
you'll see a car that's you could
because you're you don't have cameras
you i don't have eyes in the back your
head on the side you know so you say
like but you you basically your your
you know you basically have like
and i say it's not that great okay you
and i is uh you know like um and people
are constantly distracted and thinking
about things and texting and doing all
sorts of things they shouldn't do in a
having arguments you know is like um
like when's the last time you look right
and left and you know or and rearward um
to actually refresh your vector space
so you're glancing around and what your
mind is doing is is is trying to distill
the relevant vectors basically objects
and and and then uh editing that down to
the least amount that's necessary for
you to drive it does seem to be able to
uh edit it down or compress it even
further into things like concepts so
it's not it's like it goes beyond the
human mind seems to go sometimes beyond
to sort of space of concepts to where
you'll see a thing it's no longer
represented spatially somehow it's
almost like a concept that you should be
aware of like if this is a school zone
you'll remember that as a concept which
is a weird thing to represent but
need to fully represent those things or
well you indirectly you need to like
establish vector space and then
uh that those vector spaces so like um
a a bus and and you see that there's
before you drove past the bus you saw
people crossing the interstate like or
some just imagine there's like a large
truck or something blocking site
but you before you came out to the truck
you saw that there were some kids about
in front of the truck now you can no
longer see the kids but you you need to
be able but you would now know okay
those kids are probably gonna pass by
even though you cannot see them so you
you need to remember that there were
kids there and you need to have some
forward prediction of what their
position will be it's a really hard time
of relevance so with occlusions
and computer vision when you can't see
an object anymore even when it just
walks behind a tree and reappears that's
i mean at least in academic literature
it's tracking through occlusions it's
so some of it it's like object permanent
it's like same thing happens with the
humans with neural nets like when like a
toddler grows up like there's a there's
they develop they have a sense of object
permanence so before a certain age if
uh or a toy or whatever and you put it
behind your back and you pop it out if
they don't before they have object
permanence it's like a new thing every
time it's like whoa this toy went poof
just faired and now it's back again and
they can't believe it and that they can
play peekaboo all day long because this
but then we figure out object permanence
then they realize oh no the object is
not gone it's just behind your back
um sometimes i wish we never did figure
that's an important problem to solve
like an important evolution of the
memory across both time and space um so
now you can't remember like you have to
say like how long do you want to
remember things for and and it's it
there's there's a cost to remembering
things for a long time so you could you
memory to if you try to remember too
um and and then you also have things
remember them for too long and then you
remembered over time so even if you
fragrance like five seconds of memory uh
on a time basis but like let's say you
you're parked at light and you and you
you use a pedestrian example that people
across the road and you can't you can't
quite see them because of an occlusion
but they might wait for a minute before
the light changes for them to cross the
road you still need to remember that
um and that they're probably going to
cross the road type of thing um so even
your your time-based memory should not
and i just think the data engine side of
that so getting the data to learn all
the concepts that you're saying now is
an incredible process it's this
iterative process of just it's this this
we're changing the name to something
else okay i'm sure it would be equally
as yeah rick and morty like there's a
we've re-architected the neural net uh
the neural nets in the cars so many
oh so every time there's a new major
version you'll rename it to something
uh or memorable and beautiful sorry not
if you see the full the full like uh
array of neural nets that that that are
operating in the car it kind of boggles
the mind there's so there's so many
simple neural nets that were uh
image recognition on a single frame
uh trying to knit those together with
we're really primarily running c here
too much overhead and we have our own c
so to get maximum performance we
actually wrote rotor and c compiler and
are continuing to optimize our c
maximum efficiency in fact we've just
uh done a new rev on a c compiler that
will compile directly to our autopilot
hardware so you want to compile the
whole thing down and with your own
compiler yeah like so efficiency here
because there's all kinds of compute
there's cpu gpu there's like basic types
and you have to somehow figure out the
scheduling across all those things and
so you're compiling the code down yeah
this is so that's why there's a lot of
software engineering at a very sort of
we're trying to do a lot of compute
you know our full self-driving computer
so and we want to try to have the
within a sort of very finite amount of
um we really put a lot of effort into
and and uh so there's actually a lot of
some very talented software engineers at
uh at a very foundational level to
improve the efficiency of compute and
the trip accelerators uh which are
dot you know uh doing matrix math dot
like a brazilian dot products
and it's like what what are neural nets
and you want to achieve as many
high frame rates like video game you
high frame rate high frame rate low
i think one of the things we're um
moving towards now is no post processing
the image signal processor so um
cameras is that almost all cameras is
there's a lot of post processing done in
order to make pictures look pretty
and so we don't care about pictures
looking pretty um we we just want the
data we so we're removing just raw
that the computer sees is actually much
you see if you're represented on a
camera it's got much more data
and even in very low light conditions
you can see that there's a small photon
this spot here and that's about there
which means that so it can see in the
um because it can detect these tiny
uh 13 milliseconds on a latency uh
um from removing the post processing in
the image yes yeah it's like um
because we've got you know eight cameras
roughly i don't know one and a half
maybe 1.6 milliseconds of latency um
basically bypassing the image processor
uh gets us back 13 milliseconds of
and we track latency all the way from
you know all the steps that it's got to
go through to get you know go through
the various neural nets and the the c
there's a little bit of c plus plus
well i can maybe a lot but it the the
core stuff is the heavy duty computers
and so so we track that latency all the
way to an output command to the um
slow down the steering you know turn
so because you got to output a command
that's going to go to a controller and
like some of these controllers have an
update frequency that's maybe 10 hertz
or something like that which is slow
um so then we want to update the
like steering and braking control to
more like uh 100 hertz instead of 10
hertz and you could have 10 milliseconds
latency instead of 100 milliseconds
worst case latency and actually jitter
is more of a challenge than than latency
because latency is like you can you can
you can anticipate and predict but if
you're but if you've got a stack up of
things going from the camera to the to
through then a series of other computers
and finally to an actuator on the car if
of tolerances of timing tolerances then
you can have quite a variable latency
which is called jetter and and that
hard to to anticipate exactly what how
you should turn the car or accelerate
150 200 milliseconds of jitter then you
could be off by you know after 0.2
seconds and this can make this could
make a big difference so you have to
to uh deal with the effects of jitter so
the again you have to uh so the jitters
and the sensor information or the jitter
can occur at any stage in the pipeline
you can if you have just if you have
fixed latency you can anticipate um
and and uh like say okay we know that uh
our information is for argument's sake
where you can measure a change in the
then uh then you can say okay well we're
and we know it's 150 milliseconds so
we're going to take that into account
and compensate for that latency however
if you've got then 150 milliseconds of
latency plus 100 milliseconds of jitter
that's which could be anywhere from zero
to zero to 100 milliseconds on top so
then your latency could be from 150 to
150 milliseconds now you got 100
milliseconds that you don't know what to
and and that's basically random
so getting rid of jitter is extremely
and that affects your control decisions
and all those kinds of things
um yeah the car is just going to
fundamentally maneuver better with lower
the cars will maneuver with superhuman
ability and reaction time much faster
i mean i think over time the
autopilot full self driving will be
you know are far more than what like
james bond could do in like the best
movie type of thing that's exactly what
i was imagining in my mind as you said
um it's like an impossible maneuvers
that a human couldn't do you know so
well let me ask sort of uh looking back
the six years looking out into the
understanding how hard do you think this
is this full self-driving problem when
do you think tesla will solve level four
i mean it's looking quite likely that it
and what does the solution look like is
it the current pool of fsd beta
they start getting greater and greater
degrees of autonomy and then there's a
they can they can do their own they can
i mean you can see anybody who's been
rate of disengagements has been dropping
so like a disengagement b where where
the driver intervenes to prevent the car
from doing something right uh
you know per million miles has been
dropping uh dramatically at some point
trend looks like it happens next year is
probability of an accident on fsd uh is
uh less than that of the average human
and then and then significantly less
than that of the average human um so
appears like we will get there next year
that then there's going to be a case of
okay we now have to prove this to
regulators and prove it to you know and
and we we want a standard that is not
just equivalent to a human but
uh much better than the average human i
think it's got to be at least two or
safety than a human so two or three
times lower probability of injury than a
before before we would actually say like
okay it's okay to go it's not going to
be equivalent it's going to be much
so if you look uh 10 point fsd
10.6 just came out recently 10.7 is on
maybe 11 is on the way somewhere in the
future yeah um we were hoping to get 11
11 actually has a whole bunch of uh
fundamental rewrites on the neural
there is a some fundamental like leap
that really deserves the 11. i mean
that's a pretty cool number yeah yeah
a single stack for all you know one
but but there's just some really
neural net architecture changes that are
uh much more capability but but
you know at first they're gonna have
issues so like we have this working on
like sort of alpha software and it's
it's it it's basically taking a whole
bunch of c c plus code and and deleting
a massive amount of c plus plus go and
replacing it with the neural net and you
know andre um makes this point a lot
which is like neural nets like kind of
you know over time there's like
less and less conventional software more
and more neural net we're just still
still comes out the lines of software
uh let's just more more neural net stuff
you know heuristics basically um
more more more uh matrix based
you know like like like one of the big
like right now the neural nets
deliver a giant bag of points
to the c plus plus or c and c plus plus
we call the giant bag of points yeah uh
and it's like so you go to pixel and and
something associated with that pixel
like this pixel is probably car the
then you've got to assemble this giant
in the c code and turn it into
and it does a pretty good job of it but
we want to just we need another layer of
neural nets on top of that to take the
uh vector space in the neural net part
of the software as opposed to the
um you know that's all the way down it's
what you want it's not even your only
realness but it's it's it's uh this will
be just a ga this is a game changer to
not have the bag of points the giant bag
of points that has to be assembled with
um many lines of cfc plus plus uh and
and have a neural net just assemble
those into a vector so so that the
much much less data it's it's it's
outputting this this is a lane line this
is a curve this is drivable space this
is a card this is a you know a
pedestrian or a cyclist or something
the cc plus less control control code as
constructing the the vectors
which we've done i think quite a good
job of but it's it's a it you're kind of
hitting a local maximum on the how well
so this is this is really this is really
and and just all of the networks in the
car need need to move to surround video
there's still some legacy networks that
and all of the training needs to move to
surround video and the efficiency of the
training uh it needs to get better and
and then we need to move everything to
processed images okay so which is just
quite a big reset on the training
because the system's trained on post
processed image images so we need to
raw photon accounts instead of the
post-processed image so ultimately it's
kind of reducing the complexity of the
whole thing so uh reducing reducing
lines of code will actually go lower
um so you're doing fusion of all the
sensors so reducing the complexity of
having to deal with these cameras
yeah well i guess we got years too okay
yeah well we'll actually need to
incorporate um sound as well um because
you know you need to like listen for
ambulance sirens or you know fire trucks
you know yelling at you or something i
don't know just that there's there's a
little bit of audio that needs to be
incorporated as well do you need a
cookie bath break yeah we listen to the
like the ideas are the easy thing and
the implementation is the hard thing
like the idea of going to the moon is is
the easy part but going to the moon is
the hard part it's the hard part um and
there's a lot of like hardcore
engineering that's got to get done
at the hardware and software level uh
likes it optimizing the c compiler and
if we don't do this the system will not
the work of the engineers doing this
they are like the unsung heroes you know
but they are critical to the success of
i think you made it clear i mean at
least to me it's super exciting
everything that's going on outside of
yeah just the whole infrastructure of
i mean everything is going on with data
engine uh whatever whatever it's called
the scale of it is boggle's mind like
the training the amount of work done
with like we've written all this custom
software for training and labeling
um and to do order labeling auto
because especially when you've got like
it's very difficult to like label
surround video from scratch is extremely
such a long time to even label one video
basically would just apply like heavy
like a lot of compute to the to the
and guess what all the things are that
are going on in the surround video and
then there's like correcting it yeah and
then all the human has to do is like
tweet like say this you know chan adjust
what is incorrect this this is like
increasing increases productivity by
yeah uh so you've presented teslabot as
primarily useful in the factory first of
all i think humanoid robots are
incredible from a fan of robotics i
uh the elegance of movement that cuba um
the humanoid robots the bipedal robots
show are just so cool so it's uh really
interesting that you're working on this
and also talking about applying the same
kind of all the ideas of some of which
we've talked about with data engine all
the things that we're talking about with
tesla autopilot just uh transferring
that over to the just yet another
i have to ask since i care about human
robot interaction so the human side of
that so you've talked about mostly in
the factory do you see it uh also do you
see part of this problem that tesla bot
has to solve is interacting with humans
and potentially having a place like in
so interacting not just sure not
replacing labor but also like
or an assistant yeah i think the
yeah i mean it's it's obviously like a
it's not quite in tesla's primary
mission direction of accelerating
an extremely useful thing that we can do
for the world which is to make a useful
interacting with the world and
helping in in many different ways uh so
certainly in fact reason and really just
just i mean i think if you say like
extrapolate to you know many years in
uh work will become optional
like there's a lot of jobs that
people weren't paid to do it they would
they wouldn't do it like it's not it's
not fun you know necessarily like
if you're washing dishes all day it's
even if you really like washing dishes
you really want to do it for eight hours
a day every day probably not so
um and then there's like dangerous work
and basically if it's dangerous boring
potential for repetitive stress injury
humanoid robots would add the most value
what we're aiming for is is to um
for the human robots to do jobs that
people don't don't voluntarily want to
and then we'll have to pair that
obviously with some kind of universal
so do you see a world when there's like
hundreds of millions of tesla bots
doing different performing different
yeah i haven't really thought about it
that far into the future but i guess
that there may be something like that um
the the number of tesla cars has been
accelerating there's been close to 2
million produced many of them have
autopilot i think we're over 2 million
do you think there will ever be a time
when there will be more tesla bots
you know actually it's funny you asked
this question because normally i do try
pretty far into the future but i haven't
really thought that far into the future
tesla bot or it's code named optimus
because that's not it's not like a giant
you know transformer robot um
but it's meant to be a general purpose
and and basically like like the things
i think um is the has the most advanced
uh for interacting with the real world
which we've developed as a function of
along with custom hardware and
you know uh hardcore low-level software
to have it run efficiently and be you
know power efficient because because you
know it's one thing to do neural nets if
you've got a gigantic server room with
10 000 computers but now let's say you
just you have to now distill that down
one computer that's running at low power
that's actually very difficult a lot of
hardcore software work is required for
so since we're kind of like solving the
cars which are kind of like robots with
then it's like kind of a natural
put it in a robot with arms and legs uh
and actually you know actuators um
like the hard things are like you
have the rower be intelligent enough to
interact in a sensible way with the
so you need real real world ai and you
to be very good at um manufacturing
which is a very hard problem tails is
and also uh has the real world ai so
making the humanoid robot work is
uh basically it means developing
that that are different from what a car
i think with the the best expertise in
developing advanced electric motors and
humanoid robot application on a car
still you do talk about love sometimes
so let me ask this isn't like for like
sex robots or something i love is the
to us not compelling but we connect with
humanoid robots or even lego robots like
with the dog and she shapes with dogs
it just it seems like you know there's a
huge amount of loneliness in this world
all of us seek companionship and with
other humans friendship and all those
kinds of things we have a lot of here in
austin a lot of people have dogs
there seems to be a huge opportunity to
also have robots that decrease
the the amount of loneliness in the
world or help us humans connect with
um do you think about that we test about
it all or is it really focused on the
of performing specific tasks not
i mean to be honest i have not actually
thought about it from the companionship
standpoint but i think it actually would
end up being it could be actually a very
over time that is that is like
unique like uh you know it's not like
they're just all the robots are the same
and that personality could evolve
match match the the the owner or the you
whatever you want to call it uh the
other the companion the other half right
uh the same way their friends do see i
think that's a huge opportunity i think
japanese phrase i like the uh
wabi-sabi you know uh the subtle
are what makes something special
and the subtle imperfections of the
mapped to the subtle imperfections of
human friend i don't know owner sounds
could actually make an incredible buddy
basically and in that way the r2d2 or
like a c-3po sort of thing you know so
from a machine learning perspective
being a feature is really nice you could
be quite terrible at being a robot for
in the general home environment or all
the in general world and that's kind of
adorable and that's like those are your
flaws and you fall in love with those
very different than autonomous driving
where it's a very high stakes
environment you cannot mess up
yeah it's more fun to be a robot in the
yeah in fact if you think of like c-3po
r2d2 yeah like they actually had a lot
of like flaws and imperfections and
silly things and they would argue with
and um were they actually good at doing
they definitely added a lot to the story
but but there's they're sort of quirky
that they would like make mistakes and
do things like it was like uh it made
so yeah i think that that could be
something that uh probably would happen
but our initial focus is just to make it
i'm confident we'll get it done i'm not
sure what the exact time frame is but uh
like we'll probably have i don't know
towards the end of next year or
and it's cool that it's connected to
it's using a lot of you know it would
use the autopilot inference computer and
um a lot of the training that we've done
for the four cars in terms of
real world things could be applied
so it but but there's there's a lot of
custom actuators and sensors that need
and an extra module on top of the vector
okay okay add that to the car too
that could be useful in all environments
like you said a lot of people argue in
the car so maybe people can help them
uh you're a student of history fan of
dan carlin's hardcore history podcast
yeah that's great greatest podcast ever
i i it does it almost doesn't really
count as a podcast yeah it's it's it's
more like a audiobook yeah so you were
on the podcast with dan i just had to
he said you guys want military and all
that kind of stuff uh yeah it's
literally uh it was basically um
i think it should be titled engineer
wars uh essentially like like when
there's a rapid change in the rate of
engineering plays a pivotal role in in
how far in back in history did you go
well it was supposed to be a deep dive
uh technology in world war ii um but
that ended up being more wide-ranging
because i just went down the total rat
studying all of the fighters and bombers
world war ii and like the constant rock
paper scissors game that like you know
uh one country would make this plane
that would make a plane to beat that and
that try to make plane to beat that and
and really what matters like the pace of
innovation um and also access to high
so like germany had like some amazing
designs but they couldn't make them uh
because they couldn't get their raw
they they had a real problem with the
oil and and and uh fuel basically the
fuel quality was extremely uh variable
so the design wasn't the bottom that
goes uh yeah like the us had kick-ass
fuel uh that was like very consistent
like the problems if you make a very
high performance aircraft engine um in
order to make high performance you have
has to be a consistent mixture and uh
uh it has to have a high high octane
like high octane is the most important
thing but also can't have like
impurities and stuff uh because you'll
fill up the engine and and and german
just never had good access oil like they
tried to get it by invading the caucasus
um but that didn't work too well
that never works well for him
that's nice for you so they always was
germany was always struggling with [\xa0__\xa0]
with basically shitty oil um and then
they couldn't count on a on high quality
fuel for their aircraft so then they had
to add all they have all these additives
uh whereas the u.s had awesome fuel um
and that provided that to britain as
that allowed the british and the
americans to design aircraft engines
that were uh super high performance
better than anything else in the world
and germany germany could could design
the engines they just didn't have the
fuel and then also the likes of the the
uh the quality of the aluminum allies
that they were getting was also not that
great and so yeah did you is this like
uh you talked about all this with dan
broadly looking at history when you look
at genghis khan when you look at stalin
hitler the darkest moments of human
uh what do you take away from those
moments does it help you gain insight
about human nature about human behavior
whether it's the wars or the individuals
or just the behavior of people any
yeah i find history fascinating
there's a lot of incredible things that
have been done good and bad um
does it make you sad that humans do
these kinds of things to each other you
look at the 20th century world war ii
the cruelty the abuse of power
communism marxism and stalin um
i mean some of these things do i mean if
like there's a lot of human history um
actually people just getting on with
their lives uh you know and and it's not
disaster is it's those are actually just
those are intermittent and rare and if
you know humans would soon cease to
it's just that wars tend to be written
about a lot and whereas like uh
something being like well a normal year
major happened was doesn't get written
you know most people just like farming
and kind of like living their life you
and every now and again there's a war
um and um you know what i'll say like
there aren't very many books that i
where i just had to stop reading because
the book about stalin the court of the
i could have stopped reading it was just
uh there's a lot of lessons there to me
in particular that it feels like
humans like all of us have that as the
um that the line between good and evil
runs to the heart every man that all of
us are capable of evil all of us are
capable of good it's almost like this
to tend towards the good and so like to
me looking at history is almost like an
look you have some charismatic leader
that uh convinces you of things it's too
based on that story to do evil onto each
other onto your family and to others and
so it's like our responsibility to do
now is somehow different from history
that can happen again all of it can
and yes most of the time you're right i
mean the optimistic view here is
mostly people are just living life and
the quality of life was way worse back
in the day and keeps improving over time
through innovation to technology but
still it's somehow notable that these
yeah i mean life was really tough
i mean really for most of human history
a good year would be one where not that
many people in your village died of the
plague starvation freezing to death or
being killed by a neighboring village
it's like well it wasn't that bad you
know it was only like you know we lost
five percent this year that was uh
yeah it was a good year you know that
like just just not starving to death
would have been like the primary goal of
most people in through throughout
history just making sure we'll have
enough food to last through the winter
and not get in our freezer or whatever
now food is is plentiful if i have an
well yeah the lesson there is to be
grateful for the way things are now for
we've spoken about this offline
i'd love to get your thought about it
if i sat down for a long form in-person
conversation with the president of
would you potentially want to call in
uh to join in on a conversation with him
sure yeah sure i'd be happy to do that
you've shown interest in the russian
is this grounded in your interest in
history of linguistics culture
general curiosity i think it sounds cool
sounds cool now it looks cool so uh well
it's it's you know it's it's a
it takes a moment to read cyrillic
once you know what the sort like
characters stand for actually
then reading russian becomes a lot
easier because there are a lot of words
that are actually the same like bank is
so find the words that are exactly the
same and now you start to understand
cyrillic yeah if you can if you can
there's at least some commonality of
you uh you love great engineering
physics there's a tradition of the
sciences there sure you look at the 20th
you know some of the greatest rockets of
the space exploration has been done in
the soviet in the former soviet union
yeah so do you draw inspiration from
that history just how this culture that
in many ways i mean one of the sad
things is because of the language
a lot of it is lost to history because
it's not translated all those kinds of
because it it is in some ways an
isolated culture it flourishes within
um yeah so do you draw inspiration from
those folks from from the history of
i mean the soviet union russia and
strong history in space flight like some
of the most advanced and impressive
things in history were done uh
you know by the soviet union um
one can cannot help but admire the
impressive rocket technology that was
you know after the sort of fall of
there's much less that that that
still things are happening but it's not
um frenetic piece that was happening
before the soviet union kind of
dissolved into separate republics
yeah i mean i i you know there's ross
i look forward to a time when those
countries with china are working
together uh in the united states they're
all working together maybe a little bit
of friendly competition but i think
friendly competition is good um
you know governments are slow and the
only thing slower than one government is
the olympics would be boring if everyone
just crossed the finishing line at the
same time yeah nobody would watch yeah
uh and and people wouldn't try hard to
run fast and stuff so i think friendly
uh this is also a good place to give a
shout out to a video titled the entire
soviet rocket engine family tree by tim
dodd aka everyday astronaut it's like an
hour and a half it gives a full history
and people should definitely go check
out and support tim in general that guy
is super excited about the future super
excited about space flight every time i
see anything by him i just have a stupid
smile on my face because he's so excited
yeah i love people like dad is real
really great if you're interested in
anything to do with space um he's in
rocket technology to your average person
he's awesome the best i'd say
like rafter at one point was gonna be a
but but hydrogen has a lot of challenges
it's very low density it's a it's a deep
cryogen so it's only liquid at a very
you know very close to absolute zero
requires a lot of insulation it's um
so it is a lot of challenges there
and i was actually reading a bit about
uh russian rocket engine development and
at least the impression i had was that
soviet union russia and ukraine uh
uh switching to meth methylox
um and there were some interesting tests
isp like they were able to get like
up to like a 380 second isp with the
meth lux engine and i was like whoa okay
that's actually really impressive so
so i think we could you could actually
a much lower cost like in optimizing
cost per ton to orbit cost per time to
methane auction is the way to go
and i was partly inspired by the russian
and now for something completely
do you mind doing a bit of a meme review
in the spirit of the great the powerful
let's say one to eleven just go over a
you get it because uh yes are you
failing things it's like i know three
this is uh grounded in some engineering
uh yeah give us an eight out of ten
what do you think about nuclear power
i'm in favor of nuclear power i think
i i in a place that is not subject to
extreme natural disasters i think it's a
nuclear power is a great way to generate
um i i don't think we should be shutting
uh i think people there's like a lot of
fear of radiation and stuff um
i guess what the problem is like a lot
engineering or physics so they don't
it's just the word radiation just sounds
scary you know so they don't they ha
they can't calibrate what radiation
but radiation is much less dangerous
like for example fukushima you know um
when the fukushima uh problem happened
i got people in california asking me if
they should worry about radiation
definitely not not even slightly not at
like the dangers is so much overplayed
compared to what what it really
is that i actually flew to fukushima
a solar power system for water treatment
eating locally grown vegetables
so it's not even that the risk of these
events is low but the impact of them is
the impact is greatly exaggerated it's
it's people who don't know what
radiation is like i've had people ask me
like what about radiation from cell
phones according to causing brain cancer
i'm like when you say radiation do you
mean photons or particles then like that
i don't know what what do you mean
protons particles so do you mean
what frequency or wavelength and they're
like no i have no idea um like do you
know that everything's radiating all the
like what do you mean like yeah
everything's radiating all the time
photons are being emitted by all objects
and if you want to know what it's it's
what it means to stand in front of
reactor that you're staring right at it
are you still alive yes okay amazing
yeah i guess radiation is one of the
words that can be used as a tool to to
fear monger by certain people that's it
and i think people just don't understand
so i mean that's the way to fight that
uh that fear i suppose is to understand
yeah just say like okay how many people
have actually died from nuclear
accidents it's like practically nothing
and uh say how many people have have
plants and it's a very big number
like obviously we should not be
starting up coal plants and shutting
down nuclear plants just doesn't make
coal plants like i don't know a hundred
to a thousand times worse for for health
uh you want to go to the next one
90 180 and 360 degrees everybody loves
the math nobody gives a [\xa0__\xa0] about 270.
yeah i don't like two or three yeah um
that's pretty good the united states
oscillating between establishing and
destroying dictatorships it's like a
yeah yeah it's uh on a seven out of ten
it's kind of true oh yeah this is uh
this is kind of personal for me next one
oh man this is leica yeah well no is
this or it's like referring to like or
husband husband yeah yeah hello yes this
is dog your wife was launched into space
is him with his eyes closed and a bottle
yeah like it didn't come back no
they don't tell you the full story of
what the love the impact they had on the
loved ones yeah true that one gets an 11
nobody cares first man on the moon well
i think people do care no i know but um
there is uruguay gardens names will
will be forever in history i think there
is something special about placing like
stepping foot onto another totally
it's it's not the journey like uh people
that explore the oceans it's not as
important to explore the oceans is to
oh yeah i'd love to get your comment on
after sending 6.6 billion dollars to the
you know i mean obviously six billion
dollars is not going to end with hunger
i mean the reality is at this point the
far more food than it can really consume
constraint to this point so where there
it's like like civil war or strife or
it's extremely rare for it to be just a
you know it's like some to the civil war
in some some country and and like one
part of the country is literally trying
to starve the other part of the country
so it's much more complex than something
that money could solve it's politics
a lot of things it's human nature it's
governments it's monies monetary systems
yeah food is extremely cheap uh these
i mean the u.s at this point um
you know among low-income families
obesity is actually another problem it's
like obviously it's not hunger it's like
too much it's you know too many calories
it's not that nobody's hungry hungry
anywhere it's just it's just this is uh
not not a simple matter of adding money
what do you think that one gets
this is going after empires world uh
where did you get those artifacts the
yeah the british museum is it's pretty
great i mean yeah it admittedly britain
did take uh these historical artifacts
from all around the world and put them
in london but uh you know it it's not
people can't go see them uh so it is a
convenient place to see these uh ancient
you know for for a large segment of the
so i think you know on balance the
although i'm sure a lot of countries
it's like you want to make these
historical artifacts accessible to as
i think does a good job of that
even if there's a darker aspect to like
the history of empire in general
this it is the history that happened you
can't sort of erase that history
unfortunately you could just become
yeah i mean it's like well how are we
pass moral judgment on these these
if one is gonna judge say the rosh
empire you're gonna judge you know what
everyone was doing at the time
and how were the british relative to
and i think they would british would
actually get like a relatively good
grade relatively good grade not in
absolute terms but compared to
what everyone else was doing um
like i said you gotta look at these
things in the context of the history at
the time um and say what what were the
alternatives and what are you comparing
i do not think it will be the case that
a bad grade in in when looking at
history at the time you know if you
what is morally acceptable today you
basically are going to give everyone a
failing grade yeah i'm not clear it's
not i don't think anyone would get a
in in their morality uh of like you go
back 300 years ago like who's getting a
and we might not get a passing grade
from generations but uh that come after
uh what what does that one get
for the monty python maybe i always love
uh brian and the quest for holy grail
are incredible yeah yeah yeah those
like you know how important is facial
great leadership well you got a new
haircut is that is that is this how does
there's no one competing with brush i
have no one too those are like epic
that's ridiculous six or seven i don't
know uh i like this like shakespearean
he had he had a flair for drama as well
showmanship yeah yeah it must come from
invention great engineering look what i
invented yeah that's the best thing
yeah because they invented they're just
sliced bread am i just explaining memes
this is what my life has become
you know like a scribe that like runs
around with the kings and just like
i mean when was the cheeseburger
inventor that's like an epic invention
that was versus just like a burger or a
burger i guess a burger in general it's
then there's like what is a burger
what's a sandwich and then you start
getting as a pizza sandwich and what is
it's it's it gets into an ontology
argument yeah but everybody knows like
cheeseburger or whatever you like you
get like you know tomato and some
lettuce and onions and whatever and you
mayor and ketchup and mustard it's like
epic yeah but i'm sure they've had bread
and meat separately for a long time and
it was kind of a burger on the same
plate but somebody who actually combined
and yeah bite and hold it make makes it
convenient it's a materials problem like
dirty and whatever yeah it's brilliant
well that is not what i would have
but everyone knows like you you if you
order a cheeseburger you know what
you're getting you know it's not like
some obtuse like i wonder what i'll get
great i mean they were the devil but
uh yeah chip pizza is incredible
uh food innovation doesn't get enough
yeah i guess is what we're getting at
uh what about the uh matthew mcconaughey
austinite here uh president kennedy
do you know how to put men on the moon
sure six six or seven i suppose
someone drew a bunch of dicks all over
the walls sistine chapel boys bathroom
all right this is our highest ranking
meme for today i mean it's true like how
i mean just something throughout history
as long as people can draw things
a staple of human history it's a staple
consistent throughout human history you
you tweeted that you aspired to comedy
you're friends with joe rogan
might you uh do a short stand-up comedy
set at some point in the future
maybe um open for joe something like
that is that is that really stand-up
actual just blown stand-up full-on
stand-up is that in there or is that
um it's extremely difficult if
at least that's what the like joe says
huh i wonder if i could um i mean only
you know i'll get get on like a roof uh
they do laugh but they're friends too so
i don't know if if you gotta call you
know like a rumor strangers are they
gonna actually also find it funny but
i think you'd learn something either way
both the when you bomb and when when you
do great just watching people how they
deal with it is so difficult it's so
and you you think you're gonna be funny
and when it completely falls flat it's
just it's beautiful to see people
deal with like that uh you might have
enough material to do standard
no no i've never thought about but i
might have enough material um
i don't know like 15 minutes or
something oh yeah yeah do it do a
um what's your favorite rick and morty
just to spring that on you is there
there's a lot of sort of scientific
engineering ideas explored there there's
the favorite one that's the butter robot
it's great uh yeah it's a great show
somebody that's exactly like you from an
alternate dimension showed up there elon
yeah that's right that you voiced yeah
rick morty suddenly explores a lot of
i so like what's your favorite one i
know the the butter robot certainly is
you know it's like it it's certainly
possible to have too much sentience in a
um like you don't want to have your
a super genius toaster it's gonna hate
hate life because well it could just
make us toast but if you know it's like
you don't want to have like super
a very limited device um do you think
it's too easy from uh if we talk about
from the engineering perspective of
super intelligence like with marvin the
robot like is it j it seems like it
might be very easy to engineer just a
like it sure it's not obvious to
engineer a robot that's going to
i wonder if that's like the default
if you don't do a good job on building a
robot it's going to be sad a lot
well we can reprogram robots easier than
tinkering then it might get sad
but you can change the optimization
you uh like i mentioned with with spacex
you give a lot of people hope and a lot
of people look up to you millions of
people look up to you uh if we think
in high school maybe in college
um what advice would you give to them
if they want to try to do something big
in this world they want to really have a
big positive impact what advice would
you give them about their career maybe
you do things that are useful to your
fellow human beings to the world
um you know are you contributing more
try to have a positive net contribution
i think that's the thing to aim for you
know not to try to be sort of a leader
just for the sake of being a leader or
a lot of times the people you want as
leaders are other people who don't want
use the mental tools of physics and
apply them broadly in life there are the
best tools when you think about
education and self-education what do you
so there's the university there's
there is a hands-on sort of finding a
company or a place or a set of people
that do the thing you're passionate
about and joining them as early as
there's uh taking a road trip across
europe for a few years and writing some
poetry which uh which which trajectory
how you can become useful as you
mentioned how you can have the most
but i encourage people to read a lot of
basically try to ingest as much
and try to also just develop a good
a rough lay of the land of the the
um like try to learn a little bit about
a lot of things um because you might not
know what you're really interested how
would you know what you're really
interested in if you at least aren't
peripheral exploration of broadly of
um and you talk to people from different
walks of life and different uh
industries and professions and skills
and like what occupations like just try
isn't the whole thing a search for
yeah what's the meaning of life and all
but just generally like i said i would
encourage people to read broadly
in many different subject areas um
and and and then try to find something
where there's an overlap of your talents
and what you're interested in so people
may be good at something but or they may
skill at a particular thing but they
so you want to try to find a thing where
that's a good a good uh combination of
of your of the things that you're
inherently good at but you also like
and um and reading is a super fast
shortcut to to figure out which where
are you you're both good at it you like
doing it and it will actually have
positive impact well you've got to learn
about things somehow so re reading
you know the more important one is that
read through the encyclopedia uh so
there's also things i didn't even know
existed or a lot so obviously it's like
as broad as it gets encyclopedias were
uh you know whatever 40 years ago
you know we read through the the
condensed version of the encyclopedia
um you can always like skip subjects or
you read a few paragraphs and you know
you're not interested just jump to the
so read the encyclopedia we're just
but you know i put a lot of stock and
certainly have a lot of respect for
someone who puts in an honest day's work
and just generally to have like not a
if you if you sort of say like
when when we see people like perhaps um
including some very smart people
kind of uh taking an attitude of uh like
like doing things that seem like morally
it's often because they have at a base
sort of axiomatic level a zero-sum
um and and they without realizing it
they don't realize they have a
zero-sum mindset or at least that they
um and so if you have a zero-sum mindset
then the only way to get ahead is by
if the pie is fixed then the only way to
have more pie is to take someone else's
but but this is false like obviously the
pie has grown dramatically over time the
so overuse this analogy if you have a
lot of you can have there's a lot of pi
so you really want to make sure you
don't you're not operating um
without realizing it from a zero-sum
where the only way to get ahead is to
take things from others then that's
going to result in you trying to take
things from others which is not not good
adding to the economic pie maybe you
like i said creating more than you
consume uh doing more than you
so that that's a big deal um i think
there's like you know a fair number of
uh do have a bit of a zero-sum mindset
i mean it's all walks of life i've seen
that one of the one of the reasons
uh rogan inspires me he celebrates oh
there's a lot there's not not creating a
constant competition like there's a
scarcity of resources what happens when
you celebrate others and you promote
it uh it actually grows that pie i mean
it the every like the uh the resource
the resources become less scarce
and that that applies in a lot of kinds
of domains it applies in academia where
uh see some funding for academic
research is zero sum and it is not if
you celebrate each other if you make if
you get everybody to be excited about ai
about physics above mathematics i think
it there'd be more and more funding and
i think everybody wins yeah that applies
last question about love and meaning
uh what is the role of love in the human
condition broadly and more specific to
you how has love romantic love or
otherwise made you a better person a
now you're asking really perplexing
books poems and songs written about what
you know what is love people don't hurt
um that's one of the great ones yes yeah
you've you've earlier quoted shakespeare
but that that's really up there yeah
let me that was the many splendor thing
it's because we've talked about so many
inspiring things like be useful in the
world sort of like solve problems
it seems like connection between humans
it's a source of joy it's a source of
meaning and that that's what love is
i i just wonder if you think about that
kind of thing when you talk about
preserving the light of human
consciousness right and thus becoming a
multiplication multi-planetary species
that that means like if we're just alone
and conscious and intelligent it doesn't
mean nearly as much as if we're with
right and there's some magic created
uh the friendship of it and i think the
highest form of it is love which i think
broadly is is much bigger than just sort
of romantic but also yes romantic love
um family and those kinds of things well
i mean the reason i guess i care about
us becoming a multi-planet species in a
foundationally i love humanity
and and so i wish to see it prosper and
do great things and be happy and
um and if i did not love humanity i
would not care about these things
so when you look at the whole of it the
the human history all the people has
ever lived all the people alive now
on the whole we're pretty interesting
and i've read a lot of history including
and uh and despite all that i think on
you joked about it with the 42 uh what
what do you think is the meaning of this
is like is there a non-numerical oh
yeah well really i think what douglas
adams was saying in hitchhiker's guide
we really need to figure out are what
questions to ask about the answer that
and that the question is the really the
hard part and if you can properly frame
the question then the answer relatively
so therefore if you want to understand
questions to ask about the universe you
want to understand the meaning of life
expand the scope and scale of
understand the nature of the universe
and understand the meaning of life
the most important part would be to ask
thereby elevating the role of the
yes exactly as the most important human
you know it's a hot it's hard to come up
but yeah like it's like that that is the
foundation of my philosophy is that
um i i am curious about the nature of
you know and obviously i will die
i don't know when i'll die but i won't
but i would like to know that we are on
a path to understanding the nature of
the universe and the meaning of life and
what questions to ask about the answer
and um and so if we expand the scope and
scale of humanity and consciousness in
general which includes silicon
that you know there were that that seems
like a fundamentally good thing
i'm deeply grateful that you would spend
your extremely valuable time with me
today and also that you are given
millions of people hope in this
difficult time this divisive time
in this uh cynical time so i hope you do
continue doing what you're doing thank
you so much for talking today oh you're
welcome uh thanks for your excellent
conversation with elon musk to support
this podcast please check out our
and now let me leave you with some words
when something is important enough you
do it even if the odds are not in your
thank you for listening and hope to see