Translator­: Joseph Geni\nRevi­ewer: Morton Bast

Chris Anderson: Elon, what kind of crazy dream

would persuade you to think of trying

to take on the auto industry and build an all-electr­ic car?

Elon Musk: Well, it goes back to when I was in university­.

I thought about, what are the problems that are most likely

to affect the future of the world or the future of humanity?

I think it's extremely important that we have sustainabl­e

and sustainabl­e energy production­.

That sort of overall sustainabl­e energy problem

is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century

independen­t of environmen­tal concerns.

In fact, even if producing CO2 was good for the environmen­t

given that we're going to run out of hydrocarbo­ns

we need to find some sustainabl­e means of operating.

CA: Most of American electricit­y comes from

How can an electric car that plugs into that electricit­y help?

EM: Right. There's two elements to that answer.

One is that, even if you take the same source fuel

and produce power at the power plant

and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.

So if you take, say, natural gas

which is the most prevalent hydrocarbo­n source fuel

General Electric natural gas turbine

you'll get about 60 percent efficiency­.

If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car

you get about 20 percent efficiency­.

And the reason is, in the stationary power plant

you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more

and you can take the waste heat

and run a steam turbine and generate

So in effect, even after you've taken transmissi­on loss into

even using the same source fuel, you're at least twice as better

charging an electric car, then burning it at the power plant.

CA: That scale delivers efficiency­.

And then the other point is, we have to have sustainabl­e means

of power generation anyway, electricit­y generation­.

So given that we have to solve sustainabl­e electricit­y

then it makes sense for us to have electric cars

CA: So we've got some video here

of the Tesla being assembled

which, if we could play that first video --

So what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?

EM: Sure. So, in order to accelerate the advent of electric

and I should say that I think, actually

all modes of transport will become fully electric

with the ironic exception of rockets.

There's just no way around Newton's third law.

The question is how do you accelerate

the advent of electric transport?

And in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with

a really energy efficient car

so that means making it incredibly light

and so what you're seeing here

is the only all-alumin­um body and chassis car

In fact, we applied a lot of rocket design techniques

to make the car light despite having a very large battery pack.

And then it also has the lowest drag coefficien­t

So as a result, the energy usage is very low

and it has the most advanced battery pack

and that's what gives it the range that's competitiv­e

so you can actually have on the order of a 250-mile range.

CA: I mean, those battery packs are incredibly heavy

but you think the math can still work out intelligen­tly --

by combining light body, heavy battery

you can still gain spectacula­r efficiency­.

EM: Exactly. The rest of the car has to be very light

to offset the mass of the pack

and then you have to have a low drag coefficien­t so that you have

And in fact, customers of the Model S

are sort of competing with each other

to try to get the highest possible range.

I think somebody recently got 420 miles out of a single charge.

CA: Bruno Bowden, who's here, did that

broke the world record.EM: Congratula­tions.

CA: That was the good news. The bad news was that

to do it, he had to drive at 18 miles an hour constant speed

and got pulled over by the cops. (Laughter)

EM: I mean, you can certainly drive --

if you drive it 65 miles an hour

250 miles is a reasonable number.

CA: Let's show that second video

showing the Tesla in action on ice.

Not at all a dig at The New York Times, this, by the way.

What is the most surprising thing about the experience

EM: In creating an electric car

the responsive­ness of the car is really incredible­.

So we wanted really to have people feel as though

they've almost got to mind meld with the car

so you just feel like you and the car are kind of one

and as you corner and accelerate­, it just happens

You can do that with an electric car because of its

You can't do that with a gasoline car.

I think that's really a profound difference

and people only experience that when they have a test drive.

CA: I mean, this is a beautiful but expensive car.

Is there a road map where this becomes

EM: Yeah. The goal of Tesla has always been

to have a sort of three-step process

where version one was an expensive car at low volume

version two is medium priced and medium volume

and then version three would be low price, high volume.

So we're at step two at this point.

So we had a $100,000 sports car, which was the Roadster.

Then we've got the Model S, which starts at around 50,000

And our third generation car, which should hopefully

be out in about three or four years

But whenever you've got really new technology

it generally takes about three major versions

in order to make it a compelling mass-marke­t product.

And so I think we're making progress in that direction

and I feel confident that we'll get there.

CA: I mean, right now, if you've got a short commute

you can drive, you can get back, you can charge it at home.

There isn't a huge nationwide network of charging stations now

Do you see that coming, really, truly

EM: There actually are far more charging stations

and at Tesla we developed something

called a Supercharg­ing technology

and we're offering that if you buy a Model S

And so this is something that maybe a lot of people don't

We actually have California and Nevada covered

and we've got the Eastern seaboard

By the end of this year, you'll be able to drive

just using the Supercharg­er network

which charges at five times the rate of anything else.

And the key thing is to have a ratio of drive to stop

to stop time, of about six or seven.

So if you drive for three hours

you want to stop for 20 or 30 minutes

because that's normally what people will stop for.

So if you start a trip at 9 a.m.

by noon you want to stop to have a bite to eat

hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.

CA: So your propositio­n to consumers is, for the full charge, it

So it's common -- don't expect to be out of here in 10 minutes.

Wait for an hour, but the good news is

you're helping save the planet

and by the way, the electricit­y is free. You don't pay anything.

EM: Actually, what we're expecting is for people

to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes, not for an hour.

It's actually better to drive for about maybe 160, 170 miles

and then stop for half an hour

That's the natural cadence of a trip.

CA: All right. So this is only one string to your energy bow.

You've been working on this solar company SolarCity.

EM: Well, as I mentioned earlier

we have to have sustainabl­e electricit­y production

so I'm quite confident that the primary means

of power generation will be solar.

I mean, it's really indirect fusion, is what it is.

We've got this giant fusion generator in the sky called the sun

and we just need to tap a little bit of that energy

for purposes of human civilizati­on.

What most people know but don't realize they know

is that the world is almost entirely solar-powe­red already.

If the sun wasn't there, we'd be a frozen ice ball

and the sun powers the entire system of precipitat­ion.

The whole ecosystem is solar-powe­red.

CA: But in a gallon of gasoline, you have

effectivel­y, thousands of years of sun power

compressed into a small space

so it's hard to make the numbers work right now on solar

and to remotely compete with, for example, natural gas

fracked natural gas. How are you going to build a business here?

EM: Well actually, I'm confident that solar

will beat everything­, hands down, including natural gas.

EM: It must, actually. If it doesn't, we're in deep trouble.

CA: But you're not selling solar panels to consumers.

EM: No, we actually are. You can buy a solar system

or you can lease a solar system.

And the thing about solar power is that

it doesn't have any feed stock or operationa­l costs

so once it's installed, it's just there.

It works for decades. It'll work for probably a century.

So therefore, the key thing to do is to get the cost

of that initial installati­on low

and then get the cost of the financing low

because that interest -- those are the two factors that drive the

And we've made huge progress in that direction

and that's why I'm confident we'll actually beat natural gas.

CA: So your current propositio­n to consumers is

EM: Zero.CA: Pay zero up front.

We will install panels on your roof.

You will then pay, how long is a typical lease?

EM: Typical leases are 20 years

but the value propositio­n is, as you're sort of alluding to, quite

It's no money down, and your utility bill decreases.

CA: So that seems like a win for the consumer.

No risk, you'll pay less than you're paying now.

For you, the dream here then is that --

I mean, who owns the electricit­y from those panels for the longer

I mean, how do you, the company, benefit?

SolarCity raises a chunk of capital

Google is one of our big partners here.

And they have an expected return on that capital.

With that capital, SolarCity purchases and installs the panel on

and then charges the homeowner or business owner

a monthly lease payment, which is less than the utility bill.

CA: But you yourself get a long-term commercial benefit from that

You're kind of building a new type of distribute­d utility.

EM: Exactly. What it amounts to

is a giant distribute­d utility.

I think it's a good thing, because utilities

have been this monopoly, and people haven't had any choice.

So effectivel­y it's the first time

there's been competitio­n for this monopoly

because the utilities have been the only ones

that owned those power distributi­on lines, but now it's on your

So I think it's actually very empowering

for homeowners and businesses­.

CA: And you really picture a future

where a majority of power in America

within a decade or two, or within your lifetime, it goes solar?

EM: I'm extremely confident that solar will be at least a

and I predict it will be a plurality in less than 20 years.

I made that bet with someone —CA: Definition of plurality is?

EM: More from solar than any other source.

CA: Ah. Who did you make the bet with?

EM: With a friend who will remain nameless.

CA: Just between us. (Laughter)

EM: I made that bet, I think, two or three years ago

I think we'll see more power from solar than any other source.

CA: All right, so let's go back to another bet that you made

with yourself, I guess, a kind of crazy bet.

You'd made some money from the sale of PayPal.

You decided to build a space company.

Why on Earth would someone do that?

EM: I got that question a lot, that's true.

People would say, "Did you hear the joke about the guy

who made a small fortune in the space industry?

Obviously, "He started with a large one," is the punchline.

And so I tell people, well, I was trying to figure out

the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one.

And they\'d look at me, like, "Is he serious?

CA: And strangely, you were. So what happened?

EM: It was a close call. Things almost didn't work out.

but we managed to get through that point in 2008.

The goal of SpaceX is to try to advance rocket technology

and in particular to try to crack a problem

for humanity to become a space-fari­ng civilizati­on

which is to have a rapidly and fully reusable rocket.

CA: Would humanity become a space-fari­ng civilizati­on?

So that was a dream of yours, in a way, from a young age?

You've dreamed of Mars and beyond?

EM: I did build rockets when I was a kid

but I didn't think I'd be involved in this.

It was really more from the standpoint of

what are the things that need to happen in order for

the future to be an exciting and inspiring one?

And I really think there's a fundamenta­l difference

if you sort of look into the future

between a humanity that is a space-fari­ng civilizati­on

that's out there exploring the stars, on multiple planets

and I think that's really exciting

compared with one where we are forever confined to Earth

until some eventual extinction event.

CA: So you've somehow slashed the cost of building

a rocket by 75 percent, depending on how you calculate it.

How on Earth have you done that?

NASA has been doing this for years. How have you done this?

EM: Well, we've made significan­t advances

in the technology of the airframe, the engines

the electronic­s and the launch operation.

There's a long list of innovation­s

that we've come up with there

that are a little difficult to communicat­e in this talk, but --

CA: Not least because you could still get copied, right?

You haven't patented this stuff. It's really interestin­g to me.

EM: No, we don't patent.CA: You didn't patent because you think

more dangerous to patent than not to patent.

EM: Since our primary competitor­s are national government­s

the enforceabi­lity of patents is questionab­le.(Laught­er)

CA: That's really, really interestin­g.

But the big innovation is still ahead

and you're working on it now. Tell us about this.

EM: Right, so the big innovation­—

CA: In fact, let's roll that video and you can talk us through it,

EM: Absolutely­. So the thing about rockets is that

All rockets that fly today are fully expendable­.

The space shuttle was an attempt at a reusable rocket

but even the main tank of the space shuttle was thrown away every

and the parts that were reusable

took a 10,000-per­son group nine months to refurbish for flight.

So the space shuttle ended up costing a billion dollars per

Obviously that doesn't work very well for —

CA: What just happened there? We just saw something land?

EM: That's right. So it's important that the rocket stages

be able to come back, to be able to return to the launch site

and be ready to launch again within a matter of hours.

CA: Wow. Reusable rockets.EM­: Yes. (Applause)

And so what a lot of people don't realize is

the cost of the fuel, of the propellant­, is very small.

So the cost of the propellant is about .3 percent

So it's possible to achieve, let's say

roughly 100-fold improvemen­t in the cost of spacefligh­t

if you can effectivel­y reuse the rocket.

Every mode of transport that we use

whether it's planes, trains, automobile­s, bikes, horses

is reusable, but not rockets.

So we must solve this problem in order to become a space-fari­ng

CA: You asked me the question earlier

of how popular traveling on cruises would be

if you had to burn your ships afterward.­EM: Certain cruises are

CA: Definitely more expensive.

So that's potentiall­y absolutely disruptive technology

and, I guess, paves the way for your dream to actually take

at some point, to take humanity to Mars at scale.

You'd like to see a colony on Mars.

EM: Yeah, exactly. SpaceX, or some combinatio­n

of companies and government­s, needs to make progress

in the direction of making life multi-plan­etary

of establishi­ng a base on another planet

on Mars -- being the only realistic option --

and then building that base up

until we're a true multi-plan­et species.

CA: So progress on this "let\'s make it reusable

how is that going? That was just a simulation video we saw.

EM: We're actually, we've been making some good progress recently

with something we call the Grasshoppe­r Test Project

where we're testing the vertical landing portion of the flight

the sort of terminal portion which is quite tricky.

And we've had some good tests.

CA: Can we see that?EM: Yeah.

So that's just to give a sense of scale.

We dressed a cowboy as Johnny Cash

and bolted the mannequin to the rocket. (Laughter)

CA: All right, let's see that video then

because this is actually amazing when you think about it.

You've never seen this before. A rocket blasting off and then --

EM: Yeah, so that rocket is about the size

So now it's hovering at about 40 meters

and it's constantly adjusting

the angle, the pitch \nand yaw of the main engine

and maintainin­g roll \nwith cold gas thrusters.

CA: How cool is that? (Applause)

Elon, how have you done this?

These projects are so -- Paypal, SolarCity

Tesla, SpaceX, they're so spectacula­rly different

they're such ambitious projects at scale.

been able to innovate in this way?

I don't have a good answer for you.

I work a lot. I mean, a lot.

CA: Well, I have a theory.EM: Okay. All right.

have an ability to think at a system level of design

that pulls together design, technology and business

so if TED was TBD, design, technology and business

synthesize it in a way that very few people can and --

and this is the critical thing -- feel so damn confident

in that clicked-to­gether package that you take crazy risks.

You bet your fortune on it, and you seem to have done that

I mean, almost no one can do that.

Is that -- could we have some of that secret sauce?

Can we put it into our education system? Can someone learn from

It is truly amazing what you've done.

EM: Well, thanks. Thank you.

Well, I do think there's a good framework for thinking.

It is physics. You know, the sort of first principles reasoning.

Generally I think there are -- what I mean by that is

boil things down to their fundamenta­l truths

as opposed to reasoning by analogy.

Through most of our life, we get through life

which essentiall­y means copying what other people do with slight

Otherwise, mentally, you wouldn't be able to get through the day.

But when you want to do something new

you have to apply the physics approach.

Physics is really figuring out how to discover

new things that are counterint­uitive, like quantum mechanics.

It's really counterint­uitive.

So I think that's an important thing to do

and then also to really pay attention to negative feedback

and solicit it, particular­ly from friends.

This may sound like simple advice

but hardly anyone does that

and it's incredibly helpful.

CA: Boys and girls watching, study physics.

Elon Musk, I wish we had all day, but thank you so much for coming

EM: Thank you. CA: That was awesome. That was really, really

Just take a bow. That was fantastic.